This working paper assesses technology progress and new developments in transmissions in China.
The conventional automatic transmission is the most popular non-manual transmission technology in China, with a market share of 33% in 2017. Among these, 6AT is most prevalent, accounting for 25% of the market. CVTs account for 14% and DCTs, 12%. CVTs and DCTs have seen a huge increase in market share from 2010 to 2017, with penetration of CVTs expanding faster than that of DCTs from 2014 to 2017. The development of CVTs and DCTs has been much slower in the independent manufacturer fleet. DCTs were more widely deployed by independents, and the market share of CVTs decreased from 2014 to 2017.
As the localization of foreign transmission suppliers is slow, independent manufacturers and domestic suppliers have increased investment in research and development of transmission technologies. There are many collaborations between domestic suppliers and foreign companies. Even though, there is a big gap between domestic and leading global transmission technologies: (a) the lack of core transmission technology; (b) high R&D cost and market risk; (c) a lack of basic experimental data.
This paper is one of a series of ICCT working paper that aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the current availability, effectiveness, and future market penetration of key fuel-efficiency technologies that manufacturers are likely to use in China by 2030. This information enables a more accurate, China-specific understanding of future technology pathways.