Assessing Canada’s 2025 passenger vehicle greenhouse gas standards: Characteristics of the Canadian fleet

Published: 2018.09.12
By

Francisco Posada, Aaron Isenstadt, Ben Sharpe, and John German

This paper is part of a series of reports on analysis done by the ICCT on Canada-specific technology pathways, costs, and benefits of Canada’s 2025 passenger vehicle greenhouse gas standards. The analysis compares the standards in force to the alternative of following the Trump Administration’s proposal to roll back the 2025 U.S. fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions standards.

This analysis develops a Canadian LDV baseline fleet to assess the main characteristics and provide a sense of the similarities and differences between the Canadian and the U.S. LDV fleets. The analysis found:

  • Although Canada fleet’s average CO2 emissions are higher than the U.S. ’s fleet, separate car and truck emissions are lower. This is driven by larger appetite for light-trucks in Canada: Five out of every ten light vehicles sold in Canada in CY 2016 were trucks, compared to four out of ten vehicles sold in the United States in MY 2015.  Canadian consumers tend to buy slightly smaller and lighter cars than U.S. consumers, leading to the greater difference in efficiency for cars compared with trucks.
  • The Canadian fleet has adopted fuel-efficient technologies at the same rate as the U.S. fleet, suggesting a unified North American LDV technology market. GDI was available in  52.3% of CY 2016 LDVs in Canada and very close to the  48.3% uptake seen in the U.S. for MY 2016. Turbochargers are also a close match between the fleets when looking at the U.S. MY 2016 adoption rates (20.0%) and the Canadian CY 2016 adoption rates (25.2%). 
  • Some vehicles in the Canadian baseline fleet already meet future CO2 emissions target.. When average compliance credits are included, more than half of conventional, nonhybrid CY 2016 vehicles would meet their 2020 targets, nearly 30% of all vehicles would meet their 2022 targets, and more than 6% would meet 2025 targets.
Car and truck CO2 emissions by manufacturer in Canada (CY 2016) and in the United States (MY 2015). Sorted by total market share of each manufacturer in Canada.
Car and truck CO2 emissions by manufacturer in Canada (CY 2016) and in the United States (MY 2015). Sorted by total
market share of each manufacturer in Canada.

Related Papers:

Assessing Canada’s 2025 passenger vehicle greenhouse gas standards: Methodology and OMEGA model description
Assessing Canada’s 2025 passenger vehicle greenhouse gas standards: Technology deployment and costs
Assessing Canada’s 2025 passenger vehicle greenhouse gas standards: Benefits analysis