GHG reduction potential for heavy-duty vehicles in the EU

Published: 2012.01.19

Karen Law, Michael D. Jackson, Michael Chan (TIAX LLC)

As Europe examines a broad range of strategies to improve its heavy-duty vehicle sector greenhouse gas performance, this report by TIAX, LLC for the ICCT answers one key question: what technologies can be deployed to improve new truck and bus efficiency in 2015-2020?

The report builds on the European Commission sponsored “Lot 1” report authored by AEA and Ricardo, and TIAX’s previous US-focused work for the National Academy of Sciences. The report’s key finding is that there are significant opportunities for advancement in the adoption of technologies that will reduce fuel consumption and GHG emissions from commercial vehicles in the E.U.

Figure 1: Potential vehicle-level GHG reductions from all available technologies in 2015-2020 (A-R: Findings from the 2011 AEA-Ricardo study)A thorough examination of the various characteristics and operating patterns of the different heavy-duty vehicle categories revealed that there is substantial potential for technology to play a prominent role in GHG reductions across the entire fleet. The per-vehicle technology potential for GHG reductions ranges from roughly 30% to 50%, depending on the vehicle category. These results are similar to the findings from the Lot 1 report and roughly congruent with the results from TIAX’s assessment of the potential for the US fleet, which also examines the 2015–2020 timeframe. Fleetwide, total GHG emissions in 2030 could be approximately 30% lower than a business-as-usual scenario.